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| Revaluation of Leverage and Further Discussion of Debt Risk |
| LIU Xiaoguang, LIU Yuanchun
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| National Academy of Development and Strategy / School of Economics, Renmin University of China |
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Abstract Current researches have been used to measure leverage and debt risk of one country with debt ratio, but the analysis of its applicability and prerequisites is insufficient. The theoretical analysis shows that debt ratio neglects assets related to debt paying ability, which means there are flaws in theoretic basis and it may lead to a fuzzy positioning in policy practice. Thus, the current debt ratio is not a perfect indicator of assessing debt risk. In contrast, asset-liability ratio can make up for these shortcomings. Combining these two indicators, we can better assess debt risk, while the difficulty lies in accurate estimation of assets. Using the conversion relationship between asset-liability, debt and capital output, this paper overcomes the difficulty of estimating leverage. With BIS and PWT data, this paper revalues leverage data of 42 major countries in the world from 1950 to 2015, and preliminarily tests risk-forecasting ability of the new indicator. Besides, combining these two indicators, debt risk of China is reappraised. The results show that the rise of Chinese debt ratio is mainly due to the increase of capital output, rather than the increase of leverage, and the core problem of Chinese debt lies not in leverage ratio, but in the quality of assets and the efficiency of its output. This is essentially different from the phenomenon in Europe and the United States that the rise of debt is mainly from the rise of leverage, thus, there should be different solutions accordingly.
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Received: 22 January 2018
Published: 01 November 2018
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