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| Local Debts, Regional Disparity and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study Based on China's Prefecture-Level Data |
| MAO Jie, HUANG Chunyuan
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School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics;
School of Public Finance and Taxation, Capital University of Economics and Business |
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Abstract Based on the typical facts and the theoretical analysis, using of prefecture data from 2004 to 2015, this paper examines the impact of local debts on the regional economic growth. The study found that: (1) Local debts have an inverse U effect on economic growth. When the level of debt does not break the balance of debt, the positive role of local debts will lead to economic growth (by making up for the lack of financial resources or improving infrastructure). Once the debt level exceeds the debt balance, the local debts will curb economic growth. The findings are consistent with those obtained from existing literature on transnational data. (2) Different from the existing research, we also found that local debts have obvious regional differences in the impact on economic growth. Compared to the economically developed eastern region, the debt balance of the Midwest and Northeast is low, and the scale of local debts continued expansion in these areas are more likely to have a negative effect on economic growth. Factors like level economic development, fiscal condition, industrial structure, level of real estate development and urban agglomeration can explain why the eastern region has a higher balance of debt. The findings of this study provide new empirical evidence for understanding China's local government debt problems and formulating relevant policies reasonably.
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Received: 19 October 2017
Published: 01 November 2018
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