|
|
Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Marketization and Export |
TAN Xiaofen, WANG Yaqi, LU Bing
|
School of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics |
|
|
Abstract Based on highly disaggregate transaction level data, we explore the effect of exchange rate volatility on Chinese export during 2002-2009. We find that both the export value and the scope of products decrease for destinations with higher exchange rate volatility. Meanwhile, exports are more focused on the products with core competency. This effect is dampened when the level of financial marketization is higher. When the level of financial marketization increases by 10% from the average value,the exchange rate volatility elasticities of export value,product scope and product skewness reduce by 30.4%,37.5%and 35.7% respectively.Our results provide a micro-level support for the financial marketization and the relaxation of credit constraint.
|
Received: 03 September 2015
Published: 01 January 1900
|
|
|
|
[1] |
樊纲、王小鲁和马光荣,2011,《中国市场化进程对经济增长的贡献》,《经济研究》第9期,第4~16页。<br />
|
[2] |
樊纲、王小鲁和朱恒鹏,2011,《中国市场化指数——各地区市场化相对进程2011年报告》,经济科学出版社2011年12月第1版。<br />
|
[3] |
李宏彬、马弘和熊艳艳,2011,《人民币汇率对企业进出口贸易的影响——来自中国企业的实证研究》,《金融研究》第2期,第1~16页。<br />
|
[4] |
林毅夫、章奇和刘明兴,2003,《金融结构与经济增长:以制造业为例》,《世界经济》第1期,第1~20页。<br />
|
[5] |
余淼杰和王雅琦,2015,《人民币汇率变动与企业出口产品决策》,《金融研究》第4期,第19~33页。<br />
|
[6] |
Aghion, P., P. Bacchetta, R. Ranciere, and K. Rogoff, 2009, “Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development”, <i>Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(4): 494~513.</i><br />
|
[7] |
Altintas, H., R. Cetin and B. ?z, 2011, “The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Turkish Exports: 1993-2009”,<i> South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 6(2): 71~81.</i><br />
|
[8] |
álvarez, R., M. Doyle and R. A. López, 2009, “Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Margins”, Central Bank of Chile Working Paper, No.539.<br />
|
[9] |
Aizenman, J. and N. Marion, 1999, “Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries”,<i> Economica, 66(262): 157~1179.</i><br />
|
[10] |
Berman, N. and J. Héricourt, 2010, “Financial Factors and the Margins of Trade: Evidence from Cross-country Firm-level Data”,<i> Journal of Development Economics, 93(2): 206~217.</i><br />
|
[11] |
Bernard, A. B. and P. K. Schott, 2009, “The Margins of US Trade”,<i> American Economic Review, 99(2): 487~493.</i><br />
|
[12] |
Bernard, A. B., S. J. Redding and P. K. Schott, 2010, “Multiple-Product Firms and Product Switching”<i>, American Economic Review, 100(1): 70~97.</i><br />
|
[13] |
Bernard, A. B., S. J. Redding and P. K. Schott, 2011, “Multiproduct Firms and Trade Liberalization”<i>, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(3): 1271~1318.</i><br />
|
[14] |
Byrne, J. P., J. Darby and R. MacDonald, 2008, “US Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Real Sectoral Bilateral Analysis”<i>, Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(1): 238~259.</i><br />
|
[15] |
Caglayan, M. and F. Demir, 2014, “Firm Productivity, Exchange Rate Movements, Sources of Finance, and Export Orientation”<i>, World Development, 54: 204~219.</i><br />
|
[16] |
Chatterjee, A., R. Dix-Carneiro and J. Vichyanond, 2013, “Multi-product Firms and Exchange Rate Fluctuations”<i>, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 5(2): 77~110.</i><br />
|
[17] |
Chit, M. M., M. Rizov and D. Willenbockel, 2010, “Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies”<i>, World Economy, 33(2): 239~263.</i><br />
|
[18] |
Clark, P. B., 1973, “Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, and the Level of International Trade”<i>, Economic Inquiry, 11(3): 302~313.</i><br />
|
[19] |
Clark, P., N. Tamirisa, S. J. Wei, A. Sadikov and L. Zeng, 2004, “Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows-Some New Evidence”, IMF Occasional Paper, 235.<br />
|
[20] |
Ethier, W., 1973, “International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market”<i>, American Economic Review: 494~503.</i><br />
|
[21] |
Ganguly, S. and J. B. Breuer, 2010, “Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility, Relative Price Volatility, and the Real Exchange Rate”<i>, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(5): 840~856.</i><br />
|
[22] |
Greenaway, D., A. Guariglia and R. Kneller, 2007, “Financial Factors and Exporting Decisions”<i>, Journal of International Economics, 73(2): 377~395.</i><br />
|
[23] |
Grier, K. B. and A. D. Smallwood, 2007, “Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries”<i>, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(4): 965.</i><br />
|
[24] |
Héricourt, J. and S. Poncet, 2013, “Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints, and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms”<i>, World Bank Economic Review,</i> forthcoming.<br />
|
[25] |
Hondroyiannis, G., P. A. V. B. Swamy, G. Tavlas and M. Ulan, 2008, “Some Further Evidence on Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports”<i>, Review of World Economics, 144(1): 151~180.</i><br />
|
[26] |
Huang, Y., 2010, “China's Great Ascendancy and Structural Risks: Consequences of Asymmetric Market Liberalization”<i>, Asian‐Pacific Economic Literature, 24(1): 65~85.</i><br />
|
[27] |
Mayer, T., M. J. Melitz and G. I. Ottaviano, 2014, “Market Size, Competition, and the Product Mix of Exporters”<i>, American Economic Review, 104(2): 495~536.</i><br />
|
[28] |
Manova, K. and Z. Zhang, 2012, “Export Prices Across Firms and Destinations”<i>, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(1): 379~436.</i><br />
|
[29] |
McKenzie, M. D., 1999, “The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows”<i>, Journal of Economic Surveys, 13(1): 71~106.</i><br />
|
[30] |
Ozturk, I. and H. Kalyoncu, 2009, “Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: An Empirical Investigation from Cross‐country Comparison”<i>, African Development Review, 21(3): 499~513.</i><br />
|
[31] |
Pindyck, R. S., 1990, “Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment”, NBER Working Papers, No. w3307.<br />
|
[32] |
Pindyck, R. S. and A. Solimano, 1993, “Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment”, in <i>NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993,</i> Eds. by Blanchard, O. J. and B. S. Fischer: 259~318.<br />
|
[33] |
Schumpeter, J. A., 1942, <i>Socialism, capitalism and democracy. </i>New York: Harper and Brothers.
|
|
|
|