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| Study of Endogenous Energy Prices and Monetary Policy Choice in China |
| MOU Dunguo, WANG Peiying
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| School of Economics, Xiamen University; Research Institute of Finance and Banking, The People’s Bank of China |
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Abstract The empirical study based on TVP-VAR shows that domestic oil prices are influenced by international prices; yet domestic coal prices have leading effect on international prices. On monthly data level, energy prices show dependence on China’s macroeconomic data, revealing the endogenous characteristics. The endogenous coal and oil prices have complex effects on industrial income, profit and stock prices, which may expand the bubble factor in security market. The complex effects on economy are not the reason that monetary policy should respond to energy prices, the systematic simulation shows that the stable monetary policy is more beneficial to economic stability.
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Published: 10 January 2018
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