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| Population Aging, Delaying Retirement Age and the Secondary Demographic Dividend |
| GENG Zhixiang, SUN Qixiang
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| School of Economics, Peking University |
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Abstract The study of whether or not the population aging can bring the secondary demographic dividend does not reach an agreement. This paper develops an extended OLG model and studies the impact of delaying retirement age on saving, capital accumulation and output in the equilibrium. The study shows that it has an impact on gross output depends on the control effect between decreasing saving leading to output decline effect and increasing labor force leading to output increasing effect. Data simulate shows that increasing life expectancy can bring the secondary demographic dividend. When the retirement age is raised for 5 years or 10 years, the condition for bringing which is that the life expectancy should raised no more than 5.5 or 8. In terms of the secondary demographic dividend, our study shows that we write the improvement of life expectancy into the economic development index system will have important implications.
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Received: 12 August 2016
Published: 18 January 2018
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