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   Table of Content
  25 March 2017, Volume 441 Issue 3 Previous Issue    Next Issue
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Wage Growth, Fertility Differential and Human Capital Accumulation: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Study with Endogenous Fertility and Retirement   Collect
GUO Kaiming, YU Jingwen
Journal of Financial Research. 2017, 441 (3): 1-15.   DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0001-15
Abstract ( 1107 )     PDF (1444KB) ( 322 )  
The paper studies the effect of wage on the human capital accumulation in a unified growth model with inequality and endogenous fertility. It highlights the substitutional relationship between fertility and old-age leisure, through which the fertility differential is determined by the evolution of human capital. Because of externality during the period of human capital evolution, low income families tend to have higher fertility rate, lower quality investment and retire later. In the economy with rapid wage growth, the fertility differential leads to a larger share of labor with low human capital, which hinders the accumulation of human capital. The effects of social security policies also be examined. The main result implies that to cope with the financial pressure of social security fund, the government should increase the retirement age and social security tax in the short run, and change to a lower social security tax in the long run.
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The Synergy between Financial Prudential Supervision and Monetary Policy:Considering the Prevention of Financial Systemic Risk   Collect
TONG Zhongwen, FAN Conglai, ZHANG Wei, ZHU Chen
Journal of Financial Research. 2017, 441 (3): 16-32.   DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0016-17
Abstract ( 1361 )     PDF (1886KB) ( 635 )  
Monetary policy and financial regulation are consistent, the central bank’s monetary policy focusing on maintaining price stability can achieve screed volatility of financial asset prices, and the financial supervision can prevent systemic risk of financial objectives. DSGE model viewed systemic risk as endogenous in this paper, and the unexpected tightening of monetary policy will not necessarily reduce systemic risk,and it tends to have a large impact on the bank especially when financial sector is weak. Financial intermediaries’ risky behavior is influenced by monetary policy and financial regulatory policy’s synergistic response. The systematic monetary policy built on simple policy rules can improve welfare relying on leverage; While the macroprudential policy similar to the counter-cyclical capital requirements is more robust, and can get higher welfare benefits taking into account inflation and output objectives and requirements.
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Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy   Collect
MA Yong, ZHANG Jinglan, CHEN Yulu
Journal of Financial Research. 2017, 441 (3): 33-53.   DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0033-21
Abstract ( 1522 )     PDF (1889KB) ( 862 )  
After the 2008 financial crisis, great efforts are made to reconstruct macroeconomic theory within the endogenous “real-financial” framework. Against this background, this paper attempts to construct a new macroeconomic model with endogenous financial cycle considerations, which provides a new model to analyze the relationship between financial cycle, business cycle and monetary policy. Empirical evidences from the Chinese economy show that: (1) Financial cycle has an important impact on the business cycle; (2) financial cycle chock has become an important source of macroeconomic volatility; (3) the finance-augmented Taylor rule is not only conducive to safeguarding the simultaneous stability of the financial system and the real economy, but also helpful for reducing the adverse shock from the financial system to the real economy.
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MonetaryPolicy International Coordination under the Perspective of Global Optimization   Collect
SUN Guofeng, YIN Hang, CHAI Hang
Journal of Financial Research. 2017, 441 (3): 54-71.   DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0054-18
Abstract ( 1237 )     PDF (1563KB) ( 431 )  
Based on a two-country game theory model, this paper conducted research on the impact and effectiveness of monetary policy coordination among large open economies with different spill-over effects. The paper finds that when policies are coordinated, there is an improvement in total welfare compared with the scenario when there is no monetary policy coordination. In this context, monetary policies international coordination shows the following characteristics: when making monetary policy decisions, monetary authorities of large open economies will consider the externalities of other large open economies’ monetary policies on domestic economy, under the perspective of global optimization.
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Commodity Price Influence and Monetary Policy Trade-offs: Base on the Financial Attribute of Oil View   Collect
ZHANGCheng, FAN Lifu
Journal of Financial Research. 2017, 441 (3): 72-85.   DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0072-14
Abstract ( 1239 )     PDF (1475KB) ( 619 )  
This paper constructs a structural vector autoregressive model using monthly data ranging from April 2003 to June 2013 based on zero restrictions on contemporaneous response matrix to investigate the relationship between Chinese liquidity and world crude oil price empirically. The results show that: the impacts of global liquidity on world oil price have been decreasing, the impacts of China’s liquidity have been increasing; there is a tradeoff between monetary expansion and the oil price increase, which weakens the autonomy of China’s monetary policy to some extent; frequent and large scaled monetary policy adjustment and control weakens the exogeneity and strengthen the endogeneity of oil price shock.
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Urban Agglomeration, Hukou System and Education Opportunity   Collect
ZHAO Ying, SHI Zhilei
Journal of Financial Research. 2017, 441 (3): 86-100.   DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0086-15
Abstract ( 1104 )     PDF (1368KB) ( 518 )  
The amount and group characteristics of education opportunity are determined by urban agglomeration along with hukou system. The urbanization with Chinese characteristics boost the income of migrant workers while limit the education opportunity of their migrant children, which impacts have not been closely evaluated. This paper utilized the combined data from Dynamic Monitor on Migrant Workers in 2012, population census from 1964 to 2010 and prefectural level, which provided us the chance to examine the impacts concerning the urban agglomeration on education opportunity on migrant children. The impact of the former has 1.25% ~ 1.84% negative impact on the latter, and the opportunity to enter the public funded school is lower by 6.63% ~ 20.99%. Given the limited education opportunity, the right to be educated is not much affected by the number of children in a family. Informal resources owned by the migrant workers can not weaken the formal restrictions, while enlarged by the strategical positioning and downward discriminating of the city. The peer effects of the migrant workers, on the other hand, is beneficial to the growing opportunity of their children. The prosperity of urban stems from complementarity of high and low skilled workers, which urges to respect and give the equal education opportunity of migrant children. These measures are the key to keep sustained prosperity of urban and overcome the middle income trap.
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Evolution of Financial Mutual Aidand Cooperation Methods: From Informal Finance to P2P Lending   Collect
ZHANG Haiyang
Journal of Financial Research. 2017, 441 (3): 101-115.   DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0101-15
Abstract ( 1048 )     PDF (1769KB) ( 2149 )  
With the fluctuation of lifetime income, individuals have the incentive to make financial mutual aid and cooperation with other. People may confront with tighter credit constraint when economy growing, as a result, they invent new methods for mutual aid in order to expand the size of mutual aid group. The evolution of mutual aid methods, from individual lending to ROSCAs and credit cooperative represents such a trend. These methods are based on traditional kinship and community relationship, which are deteriorated as a result of migration. P2P lending is thriving because of the rapid growing of information technology, which has substantially decreased the transaction cost of borrowing and lending.
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Evidence from Companies Listed onSME Board   Collect
LI Jianjun, MA Sichao
Journal of Financial Research. 2017, 441 (3): 116-129.   DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0116-15
Abstract ( 1611 )     PDF (1179KB) ( 709 )  
In recent years, a number of enterprises in need of short-term cash flow resort to the bridge loan to solve their problems. Meanwhile, firms with idle funds participate in the investment of the bridge loan by acting as the “lender” in the shadow credit market, obtaining returns higher than industrial investment. Using China's non-financial companies listed on the small and medium-sized board in 2008-2014 as samples, this paper conducts an empirical study of the relationship between participation in “bridge loan” activities and corporate financial performance. The study finds that the scale of companies’ investment in the “bridge loan” increases and decreases quickly and the bridge financing appears normalized trend year by year. Enterprises participate in the bridge loan investment and financing activities, or only in the bridge loan investments or bridge loan financing, did not improve, even has a negative effect to the financial performance of the enterprise. The conclusion is that the unrealistic financial choice of enterprise will worsen the financial performance, the sustainable development of enterprises should rely on the main industry as well as innovation driven.
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The Impact of Bond Default on Credit Rating Agencies: Analysis Based on Bond Default in Chinese Bond Market   Collect
HUANG Xiaolin, ZHU Song, CHEN Guanting
Journal of Financial Research. 2017, 441 (3): 130-144.   DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0131-14
Abstract ( 1228 )     PDF (1135KB) ( 2422 )  
Since 2014 a series of bond defaults have happened in Chinese bond market, leading to the criticism of the creditability of credit rating which is not empirically investigated in academic. Based on the bond defaults happened during 2014 to 2015 in China, the paper empirically finds that the related CRAs involving in bond defaults become more aggressive in risk evaluation in order to keep the clients and enlarge their market shares rather than to be more conservative and tighten the rating. However, despise the opportunistic behavior of those CRAs, their market share indeed shrinks due to their involvement in those bond defaults since bond investors and issuers punish those CRAs. Moreover, the creditability of credit rating given by those CRAs is also in query that the impact of credit rating on bond financing cost also becomes smaller.
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Labor Investment Efficiency, Property Rights and Stock Returns   Collect
KONG Dongmin, XIANG Junyi, DAI Yunhao
Journal of Financial Research. 2017, 441 (3): 145-158.   DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0145-14
Abstract ( 1058 )     PDF (1081KB) ( 947 )  
This paper estimates the labor investment efficiency and investigates its influence on the stock returns. The study shows that: (1) The average return of high labor investment efficiency stocks is higher than that of low investment stocks, and by running Fama - MacBeth regression, we learn that labor investment efficiency is an insignificant risk factor that systematically influence stock returns. (2) Improving enterprise labor investment efficiency can increase the current stock returns, especially for the private enterprises. (3) The labor-intensive enterprises improve more significant on the stock returns. (4) This paper uses the labor contract law as instrumental variable to solve the latent endogenous problem, and we find the conclusion remains unchanged. On the whole, this paper has a new angle exploring the influence factors on the asset pricing, and has a clearly policy implications to the regulators, that is, to better optimize the resources distribution of employment, both the employment rate and enterprise labor investment efficiency should be taken into consideration concurrently.
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The Impact of Innovation on Acquisition Performance   Collect
ZHANG Xueyong, LIU Yiyi, LUO Dan, CHEN Rui
Journal of Financial Research. 2017, 441 (3): 159-175.   DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0159-17
Abstract ( 1444 )     PDF (1306KB) ( 614 )  
In recent years, accessing to the target's technology is becoming one of the important motives of M&A. Using a large patent-merger data in Chinese stock markets over the period of 1998 to 2015, and applying event study, calendar time portfolio method and multiple regression model, we find that key factor of promoting acquisition performance is the target innovation. (1) We show that acquirers that acquiring innovative target will get significant higher CAR and BHAR; (2) In the long run, while innovative acquirers gain more returns, in the short run, their performance has no significant difference with those non-innovative acquirers. (3) According to whether targets and acquirers have patent’s application before M&A, we divided our sample into four groups and find acquisitions featured as “innovative acquirer-innovative target” and “non-innovative acquirer-innovative target” relatively have higher returns compared to other groups. However, when the acquirer is also innovative, it can help to produce innovation synergy which promote the long-term acquisition performance; a finding of considerable importance for corporate managers and investors.
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Does Stock Option Promote Firm Innovation? Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms’ Patenting   Collect
WANG Shuxun, FANG Hongyan, RONG Zhao
Journal of Financial Research. 2017, 441 (3): 176-191.   DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0176-16
Abstract ( 1027 )     PDF (1234KB) ( 535 )  
Using panel data of Chinese listed firms from 2006 to 2011 and applying both the Difference-in-Difference approach and Propensity Score Matching method, we investigate the effect of stock option compensation on firm innovation. Our empirical results show that the adoption of stock option compensation promotes firm patenting and the increasing is more than 30%. We further find that this effect is more pronounced for non-SOEs, firms with higher mutual fund ownership, firms with longer option duration, and firms with heavier weight on top management. Our paper sheds light on the rationale of stock option compensation and has important implications for policy makers who aim to stimulate innovation.
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Does Stock Liquidity Enhance Technological Innovation?   Collect
FENG Genfu, LIU Hong, FENG Zhaozhen, WEN Jun
Journal of Financial Research. 2017, 441 (3): 192-206.   DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0192-15
Abstract ( 1202 )     PDF (1155KB) ( 551 )  
Based on the 2006-2013 A-share high frequency data to measure stock liquidity, this paper studied the causal relationship between stock liquidity and the technological innovation from two aspects: patent granted number and the R&D efficiency, and use the split-share structure reform and adjustment of stamp duty as exogenous shocks of quasi-natural experiment, combining propensity score matching and difference in differences estimation method, further verified the robustness of conclusion. Study found that the relationship between China's capital market stock liquidity and the enterprise technological innovation is moderated by firm nature; the enterprise's technological innovation level increases with the increase of stock liquidity in State-Owned enterprise; but instead, stock liquidity reduces the enterprise technological innovation in non-State-Owned enterprises. This article also puts forward appropriate policy recommendations on how to improve technological innovation of the listed company according to the research conclusions.
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