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  25 February 2018, Volume 452 Issue 2 Previous Issue    Next Issue
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The Characteristics, Difficulties and Operate Selections in Market-oriented Debt-to-equity Swap   Collect
WANG Guogang
Journal of Financial Research. 2018, 452 (2): 1-14.  
Abstract ( 2147 )     PDF (923KB) ( 1619 )  
Market-oriented debt-to-equity swap is an important move, which is introduced by Chinese government in 2017, targets to decreasing the enterprises' leverage ratio. Comparison to the debt-to-equity swap operates in the process of disposal of commercial banks' non-performing assets in 1999, the recently debt-to-equity swap has some new characteristics in following areas: its purposes of operations, internal mechanisms, market conditions, object enterprises, object assets, and operating flexibility. There are series of difficulties in market-oriented debt-to-equity swap, mainly performed in operation mechanisms, related-transaction, and operation risks.Current operations of debt-to-equity swap do not truly implement the market-oriented; them, at best, introduced some market-oriented measures within the commercial banking system. In order to truly carry out the debt-to-equity swap that is based on “market-oriented”, it must deepen the reform, courage to innovation, implement the open-to-inside policy orientation, permit various domestic operating agencies to operate debt-to-equity swaps; enhance the competition mechanism in the process of debt-to-equity swaps, upgrade the transparency and fairness in the transaction of loaning assets; make use of various financial channels to support the equities trading after the debt-to-equity swaps, then enhance the role of debt-to-equity swap in reducing the object enterprises' leverage ratio.
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China's Financial Leverage Increase in an International Perspective   Collect
ZHANG Bin, HE Xiaobei, DENG Huan
Journal of Financial Research. 2018, 452 (2): 15-29.  
Abstract ( 1136 )     PDF (1292KB) ( 1387 )  
We investigate the components, causes and impacts of China's financial leverage increase from 2009 to 2016, and compare them with the experience of United States and European economies before 2008. Money growth, soft budget constraints of local governments and SOEs, high saving rate were in place before 2009, and can't be solid causes for debt leverage increase. In the context of economic structural transformation from manufacturing to service, marginal contribution of debt growth to nominal GDP growth declined due to mismatch between supply and demand in both manufacture and service sectors. To stabilize China's financial leverage, China need stability policies to get away from deflation, and structural policies to maintain growth engine, such as deregulations in service sectors, better discipline and financing instruments for infrastructure projects.
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The Impact and Countermeasures of the Finalisation of Basel III   Collect
YANG Kaisheng, LIU Ruixia, FENG Qian
Journal of Financial Research. 2018, 452 (2): 30-44.  
Abstract ( 2490 )     PDF (864KB) ( 3305 )  
The finalisation of Basel III aims to improve the prudence, consistency, comparability and transparency of the measurement of risk weighted assets in banking sector.It has made some improvement on the measurement methods of credit risk, market risk, operational risk and credit valuation adjustment, also further clearly put forward the requirements of the capital output floor, the leverage ratio buffer and so on.The results of the cumulative quantitative impact study by BCBS show that the new regulatory rules have different effects on each bank, some banks being about to face capital shortfalls.The overall impact of the revision of the regulatory rules on the capital adequacy of China's banking sector may be not significant, however, considering the heterogeneity of each bank, the extent of each bank being impacted is to be different.Therefore, China's banking sector should adhere to strict and scientific capital management, rationally determine the transitional arrangement,thus avoid a significant impact on banking risk control capacity, macroeconomic and financial stability.
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International Regulatory Reforms for Securities Financing Transactions and Implications for China   Collect
LI Wenhong, JIA Junyi
Journal of Financial Research. 2018, 452 (2): 45-60.  
Abstract ( 1002 )     PDF (851KB) ( 731 )  
As reflected by the recent global financial crisis, shadow banking has become an important source of systemic risks due to its lack of regulation, transparency, as well as capital and liquidity buffers. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the Financial Stability Board, working together with other international standard setting organizations such as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, formulated the policy framework to strengthen oversight and regulation of shadow banking. As an integral part of this framework, policy recommendations to address liquidity mismatch, leverage, contagion risks and pro-cyclicality in securities financing transactions (SFTs) have been introduced to enhance global financial stability. In China, a series of regulations and rules for the SFTs have been implemented. However, several cases including that of the Sealand Securities Company in 2016 revealed various problems in the SFTs framework, such as liquidity mismatch, leverage, non-compliance and weaknesses in the SFTs regulation. This paper analyzes the international SFTs regulatory framework developed after the financial crisis and proposes recommendations on how to improve the SFTs regulation and supervision in China.
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Asset Portfolios of Elite Households in Qing China: A Study Based on Historical Property-confiscation Archives   Collect
YUN Yan, CHEN Zhiwu, LIN Zhan
Journal of Financial Research. 2018, 452 (2): 61-81.  
Abstract ( 3162 )     PDF (1272KB) ( 2765 )  
This paper contributes to our general understanding of elite households' asset holdings during the Qing Dynasty by looking at official asset holdings reports for property-confiscation cases. A required practice during the Qing was that when an official or businessman was punished for wrong-doing and if his household assets were confiscated, the investigator had to file a detailed report of all assets held by his household. Records of these reports were kept at the Imperial Household Department (neiwufu). By searching through archives at the First Historical Archives of China and other sources, we have collected a sample of 185 such confiscation cases, including data on land and house ownership as well as other latent variables such as loan and pawn shops owned and covering the 18th and 19th century. This sample presents a picture of how elite household asset portfolio structures evolved in Qing China. Our study shows that collecting luxury goods was far more common among municipal elites and financial assets were only a small part in their asset portfolios. Property ownership was found to be their most-preferred form of investment, but the fraction of wealth invested in land and real property would decline with wealth once the level of wealth was above a certain point.
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The Dynamic Determinations of RMB Exchange Rate based on Extend Taylor Rule Model: Theory and Empirical Evidence   Collect
JIANG Chun, SI Dengkui, LI Xiaolin
Journal of Financial Research. 2018, 452 (2): 82-99.  
Abstract ( 1349 )     PDF (1291KB) ( 663 )  
This paper extends the Taylor rule theoretical model with stock price, central bank intervention and exchange rate expectation, and investigates the microscopic mechanisms under the two-country model of Taylor rule exchange rate framework. For this purpose, we further apply smooth transition auto-regression model from the view of regime-switching during the period from July 2005 to July 2016. Our result shows that the impact of extend Taylor rule on exchange rate is significantly regime-switching and asymmetric. We also employ Bayesian time-varying VAR model with stochastic volatility to depict the dynamic determination of RMB exchange rate, and find that the extend Taylor rule has a certain lagged effect on RMB exchange rate and such an effect is different between short and long run. Besides, we also find that extended Taylor rule exhibits much higher power in explaining the conduction of monetary policy of China in the short term. Our paper provides a new insight for the public to understanding the regularity and causes of RMB exchange rate fluctuation.
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Deregulation of Interest Rates, Excessive Debt and Debt Maturity Structure   Collect
WANG Hongjian, YANG Zheng, RUAN Gangming, CAO Yuqiang
Journal of Financial Research. 2018, 452 (2): 100-117.  
Abstract ( 1126 )     PDF (886KB) ( 910 )  
The interest rate marketization is conducive to eliminate the instability of credit market and lessen the constriction of corporate financing by matching interest rate and risk. By selecting a sample of Chinese non-financial listed company data from 2000 to 2015, this paper studied whether the interest rate marketization curbed the excessive liabilities or speed up the adjustment of capital structure. The results show that the interest rate marketization significantly inhibited the enterprise's excessive liabilities and accelerated the adjustment of capital structure. Based on the test grouped by nature of property right, this paper found the inhabitation of excessive liabilities and the acceleration of capital structure adjustment mainly in the sample of non-state-owned enterprises rather than that of state-owned enterprises. Based on the natural experiment of cancellation of upper and lower limits for loan interest rate by the People's Bank of China, the conclusion stands still under further control of endogenous factors. This provides important suggestions for policymakers of promoting the interest rate marketization and improving the critical role of market in resource allocation.
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International Returnees and Firms' Export Behavior: Micro Evidence from China   Collect
XU Jiayun
Journal of Financial Research. 2018, 452 (2): 118-134.  
Abstract ( 827 )     PDF (947KB) ( 497 )  
Whether returnees can promote enterprises' export? There hasn't quantitative identification of the above problems so far. Based on the firm-level micro data of China,this paper comprehensively and systematically investigates the effects of returnees on firms' export behavior. The results show that:Returnees have a positive effect on firms' export, and the above “export-driven” effect is continuous and increasing year by year. We further introduce regional governance environment index into our study, and find that good governance environment can not only improve firms' export directly but also strengthen the positive effect of government subsidy on firms' export. Lastly, the industrial level dynamic decomposition results show that, the industrial aggregate quality growth is mainly from the intensive margin, while the extensive margin is much smaller. All in all, this paper signifies the “export-driven” effect of returnees from a micro level, which can provide important policy reference for China to effectively tap the advantages and potential value of returnees in rising China's export competitiveness.
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A Study on China's Stock Market Manipulation's Effects on Market Liquidity:Based on Closing Price Manipulation Behavior's Identification and Monitoring   Collect
LI Zhihui, WANG Jin, LI Mengyu
Journal of Financial Research. 2018, 452 (2): 135-152.  
Abstract ( 1501 )     PDF (898KB) ( 821 )  
Based on the variation characteristics security price exhibits after closing price manipulation, this paper constructs the identification method of closing price manipulation behaviors-End of Day Price Dislocation Model, and realizes suspected closing price manipulation behaviors' monitoring by high frequency trading data in China's stock market. Furthermore, this paper analyzes how closing price manipulation affects market liquidity empirically by panel data regressions, the result indicates that closing price manipulation will lead to security's transaction costs improved and market liquidity decreased, which is even more significant when markets are in vibrating and falling stages; Meanwhile, investors' quoting strategies tending to be less aggressive is the crucial factor by which closing price manipulation has effects on market liquidity, and the reason why investors adjust quoting strategies maybe non-execution risks decline due to stock prices' higher volatility.
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Determinants and Wealth Effects of Listed Companies' Decisions toEstablish Buyout Funds   Collect
PANG Jiaren, ZHOU Hua, WANG Wei
Journal of Financial Research. 2018, 452 (2): 153-171.  
Abstract ( 1167 )     PDF (927KB) ( 807 )  
Based on a hand-collected dataset of China's listed companies during 2011-2016, this paper analyzes the determinants of their decisions to set up buyout funds with private equity funds, the associated wealth effects, and the buyout funds' investment. Our analysis shows that the likelihood of establishing buyout funds is significantly related to certain firm characteristics. The announcements are associated with significantly positive short-run abnormal returns, but with significantly negative long-run abnormal returns. Investors are positive about the buyout funds' investment, but most funds make no investment after establishment. We provide some possible explanations for our findings.
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Tunneling and Propping of the Controlling Shareholders: the Effect of Corporate Income Tax   Collect
WANG Liangliang
Journal of Financial Research. 2018, 452 (2): 172-189.  
Abstract ( 1075 )     PDF (895KB) ( 599 )  
Due to corporate income tax claim on cash flows, state is de facto the largest minority shareholder in almost all companies. This study incorporates corporate income tax into the analysis framework regarding the relationship between controlling shareholders and other minority shareholders, and seeks to investigate the impact of corporate income tax on the tunneling or propping behavior of controlling shareholders. The results suggest that the corporate income tax have two effects on the choice of tunneling or propping, the first one is that corporate tax rate would increase the propensity to choose tunneling rather than propping; the other one is that tax enforcement would decrease the propensity to choose tunneling. When the controlling shareholders intend to tunnel resources, the degree of tunneling increases with the rise of the tax rate and the decrease of the tax enforcement level. When the controlling shareholders intend to prop the firm, the degree of propping increases with the rise of the tax rate and the increase of the tax enforcement level. This paper not only provides new evidence on the determinants of tunneling and propping, but also enriches the literature on tax and agency problem.
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Modeling High-dimensional Correlation and its Application to Asset Allocation   Collect
PAN Zhiyuan, MAO Jinlong, ZHOU Binrui
Journal of Financial Research. 2018, 452 (2): 190-206.  
Abstract ( 1081 )     PDF (1234KB) ( 442 )  
Taking account of some stylized facts in correlation processes and feasible implementation, a new regime switching dynamic equicorrelation (RS-DEC) model is proposed. Estimate procedures and large sample properties are also provided. RS-DEC model not only deals with high-dimensional correlation, but also takes account for structure break and asymmetry in correlation. In empirical work, we examine the asset allocation on 97 stocks in the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Our model can provide a better fit in sample, and give the information for correlations structure break; Comparing with Na$\ddot{\shortmid}$ve strategy, under Sharpe ratio and minimum standard error criteria, the results show that our model can improve the out-of-sample performance, and significant tests support these conclusions.
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