|
|
|
| Wage Productivity Deviations and the Real Exchange Rate: Retesting the Balassa-Samuelson Effect |
| DING Jianping, YANG Jie, ZHANG Chong
|
Shanghai Institute of International Finance and Economics;
School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics |
|
|
|
Abstract After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the metal standard declined in favor of the fiduciary standard and currency crises sometimes occurred. In the international context, exchange rate pricing and maintaining exchange rate stability have always been topics of concern for academics, governments and central banks. Although the equilibrium exchange rate theory based on purchasing power parity plays an important role in exchange rate pricing, the real exchange rate is often not equal to one; the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) effect provides a reasonable explanation for this.
The B-S effect provides a new research perspective for real exchange rate changes. However, the model's strong assumptions are unlikely to be satisfied in developing countries, implying that relaxing these assumptions is one of the most important approaches of study in the B-S effect literature. Most studies only relax one of the assumptions of the B-S model. China does not conform to the status quo because of its deviation from the Law of One Price and the segmentation in its labor market. In this paper, we allow for both of these and construct an open economy partial equilibrium model to decompose the real exchange rate of the RMB. Our model includes the deviation from the Law of One Price in tradables and the segmentation in the labor market. We use data for service industry sub-sectors and manufacturing firms in China and the U.S. from 2004Q1 to 2016Q4 to conduct a grouped empirical analysis of the B-S effect for the real exchange rate of the RMB and its transmission channels.
Our theoretical and empirical results suggest that(1) the B-S effect between China and the United States exists but the transmission channel of relative productivity affecting the price level by affecting relative wages, ultimately affecting the real exchange rate, is not signi ficant. (2) In addition to the traditional B-S effect transmission channel, we find that relative productivity affects the real exchange rate by affecting GDP, implying that productivity affects the real exchange rate by affecting the nominal GDP growth rate of both countries. (3) Industrial structure imbalances have caused the divergence between relative productivity and relative wages in China to a certain extent and the increase in relative wages has a negative (appreciation) effect on the RMB exchange rate.
There are two main contributions of this paper. (1) We provide a comprehensive analysis of the B-S effect after relaxing assumptions from both the theoretical and empirical perspectives. In addition to verifying the existence of the traditional B-S effect and its transmission channel, we consider additional transmission channels of the B-S effect. (2) Deviating from the standard approach in the literature, we analyze service industry sub-sectors, paying more attention to industry heterogeneity, and find that industries with divergent wages and productivity in China are more in line with the B-S effect.
Our findings have policy implications for China. Overall, the relative wages of the service and manufacturing industries in China are higher than those in the United States. China's relative productivity is both positive and negative, which means that China's non-tradable sector is more attractive to labor than its tradable one. We believe that this may be due to the distortion in China's industrial structure and because of other reasons that caused the deviation of relative wages and relative productivity in the service and manufacturing industries. To reduce this divergence, we need to unswervingly carry out supply-side structural reforms to improve labor productivity,realizing the coordinated development of high-end manufacturing and service industries. These reforms are needed to reverse the current distortion in the industrial structure and narrow the divergence in relative productivity and relative wages in the service and manufacturing industries.
|
|
Received: 03 February 2019
Published: 02 November 2020
|
|
|
|
|
| [1] |
陈仪、张鹏飞和刘冲,2018,《二元经济环境下的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应——对人民币实际汇率的再考察》,《金融研究》第7期,第1~17页。
|
| [2] |
程大中,2004,《中国服务业增长的特点、原因及影响——鲍莫尔—富克斯假说及其经验研究》,《中国社会科学》第2期,第18~32页。
|
| [3] |
丁剑平、刘健和于群,2003,《贸易部门工资水平在实际汇率决定中的作用——误差修正模型对中国与日本汇率的检验》,《上海财经大学学报》第5期,第15~23页。
|
| [4] |
鄂永健和丁剑平,2007,《差别消费权重、生产率与实际汇率:动态一般均衡模型对巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说的扩展》,《世界经济》第3期,第49~58页。
|
| [5] |
胡德宝和苏基溶,2013,《政府消费、贸易条件、生产率与人民币汇率——基于巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的扩展研究》,《金融研究》第10期,第42~54页。
|
| [6] |
胡援成和曾超,2004,《中国汇率制度的现实选择及调控》,《金融研究》第12期,第59~74页。
|
| [7] |
姜波克和莫涛,2009,《巴拉萨汇率理论的一个修正》,《金融研究》第10期,第1~6页。
|
| [8] |
林念、徐建国和黄益平,2013,《汇率制度、实际汇率与服务业发展:基于跨国面板数据的分析》,《世界经济》第2期,第78~92页。
|
| [9] |
林毅夫,2007,《关于人民币汇率问题的思考与政策建议》,《世界经济》第3期,第3~12页。
|
| [10] |
卢锋和韩晓亚,2006,《长期经济成长与实际汇率演变》,《经济研究》第7期,第4~14页。
|
| [11] |
卢锋和刘鎏,2007,《我国两部门劳动生产率增长及国际比较(1978—2005)——巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应与人民币实际汇率关系的重新考察》,《经济学(季刊)》第2期,第357~380页。
|
| [12] |
庞瑞芝和邓忠奇,2014,《服务业生产率真的低吗？》,《经济研究》第12期,第86~99页。
|
| [13] |
唐旭和钱士春,2007,《相对劳动生产率变动对人民币实际汇率的影响分析——哈罗德-巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应实证研究》,《金融研究》第5期,第1~14页。
|
| [14] |
王苍峰和岳咬兴,2006,《人民币实际汇率与中国两部门生产率差异的关系——基于巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的实证分析》,《财经研究》第8期,第71~80页。
|
| [15] |
王恕立和胡宗彪,2012,《中国服务业分行业生产率变迁及异质性考察》,《经济研究》第4期,第15~27页。
|
| [16] |
王维国和关大宇,2008,《中国出口商品生产效率结构与汇率关系的实证分析——新视角下巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的解释》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第12期,第26~36页。
|
| [17] |
王雪珂和姚洋,2013,《两国相对生产率与巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应:一个经验检验》,《世界经济》第6期,第18~35页。
|
| [18] |
王泽填和姚洋,2009,《结构转型与巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应》,《世界经济》第4期,第38~49页。
|
| [19] |
温忠麟、张雷、侯杰泰和刘红云,2004,《中介效应检验程序及其应用》,《心理学报》第5期,第614~620页。
|
| [20] |
徐建国,2011,《人民币贬值与服务业停滞》,《世界经济》第3期,第3~20页。
|
| [21] |
徐建炜和杨盼盼,2011,《理解中国的实际汇率:一价定律偏离还是相对价格变动》,《经济研究》第7期,第78~90页。
|
| [22] |
Bergin P. R., Glick R., and Taylor A. M. 2006. “Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-run Price Puzzle”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 53(8):2041～2066.
|
| [23] |
Betts C., and Devereux M. B. 2000. “Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Model of Pricing-to-market”, Journal of international Economics, 50(1):215～244.
|
| [24] |
Betts C., and Kehoe T. J. 2006. “U.S. Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Relative Price Fluctuations”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 53(7):1297～1326.
|
| [25] |
Canzoneri M. B., Cumby R. E., and Diba B. 1999. “Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries”, Journal of International Economics, 47(2):245～266.
|
| [26] |
Cardi O., and Restout R. 2014. “Unanticipated vs. Anticipated Tax Reforms in a Two Sector Open Economy”, Open Economies Review, 25(2):373～406.
|
| [27] |
DeLoach S. B. 2001. “More Evidence in Favor of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis”, Review of International Economics, 9(2):336～342.
|
| [28] |
Devereux M. B. 1999. “Real Exchange Rate Trends and Growth: a Model of East Asia”, Review of International Economics, 7(3):509～521.
|
| [29] |
Engel C. 1999. “Accounting for US real Exchange Rate Changes”, Journal of Political Economy, 107(3):507～538.
|
| [30] |
Frenkel J. A. 1976. “A Monetary Approach To The Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects And Empirical Evidence”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 78(2):200～224.
|
| [31] |
Groen J. 1998. “The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon”, Journal of International Economics, 52(2):299～319.
|
| [32] |
Harberger A. C. 2003. “Economic Growth and the Real Exchange Rate: Revisiting the Balassa-Samuelson Effect”, Conference organized by The Higher School of Economics, Moscow.
|
| [33] |
Hsieh D. A. 1982. “The Determination of the Real Exchange Rate: The Productivity Approach”, Journal of International Economics, 12(3):355～362.
|
| [34] |
Itoˉ T., Isard P., and Symansky S. A. 1999. “Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: an Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia.” In: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues (NBER-EASE volume 7). University of Chicago Press, 109-132.
|
| [35] |
Macdonald R., and Taylor M. P. 1994. “The Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics and How to Beat a Random Walk”, Journal of International Money & Finance, 13(13):276～290.
|
| [36] |
Parsley D. C., and Wei S. J. 1996. “Convergence to the Law of one Price without Trade Barriers or Currency Fluctuations”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111(4):1211～1236.
|
| [37] |
Thomas A., and King A. 2008. “The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in the Asia‐Pacific Region Revisited”, Review of International Economics, 16(1):127～141.
|
| [38] |
Unayama T. 2003. “Product Variety and Real Exchange Rates: The Balassa～Samuelson Model Reconsidered”, Journal of Economics, 79(1):41～60.
|
|
|
|
