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| Pro-cyclicality, Early Warning Indicators and Countercyclical Management of Cross-border Capital Flows in China |
| YAN Baoyu
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| Operations Office,Beijing,The People's Bank of China |
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Abstract In this paper, we verify the existence of pro-cyclicality in China's cross-border capital flows from the three dimensions of bank foreign exchange assets and liabilities, Capital and financial account flows, and the foreign exchange settlement and sale willingness. This paper establishes monitoring and early warning system of monthly indicators by applying the KLR model. The effectiveness of the KLR model is verified by sentiment indicator method. Based on the pro-cyclicality of cross-border capital flows in China and the results of monitoring and the early warning system, this paper puts forward the suggestion of using countercyclical management of banks and foreign exchange markets to manage cross-border capital flows in China.
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Received: 23 January 2018
Published: 01 November 2018
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