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| Relative Prices, Income Expectation and China's Current Account Dynamics:Empirical Analysis Based on A Two-sector Intertemporal Consumption Model |
| LIU Hongzhong, QIN Tai
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| School of Economics, Fudan University; Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. |
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Abstract In this paper, we construct a two-sector intertemporal framework to analyze the intertemporal and intratemporal substitution effects of real exchange rate and interest rate on the optimal consumption of representative agents. Then the impacts of these effects on the current account are examined empirically. A new method of seasonal data construction is employed and key parameters are estimated based on China's data, which increase the robustness of the empirical research. It is shown that the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) in China is about 0.16, and that the intertemporal framework with relative prices could explain China's current account dynamics to a great extent . The results indicate that the effects of changes in expected income and relative prices on the optimal consumption choices—particularly the intratemporal substitution effect of real exchange rate—is an important determinant of the co-movement of China's current account surplus and RMB appreciation since 2005.
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Received: 31 December 2013
Published: 19 April 2018
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