|
|
|
| The Characteristics of Monetary Policy Changes and the Choice of Control Modesin the Period of “New Normal” |
| LIU Jinquan ,XIE Yaoshu
|
| Quantitative Research Center of Economics,Jilin University |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Based on the data of the inflation gap and output gap, interest rate and money supply in January 1996-June 2016, this paper mainly analyzes the reaction characteristics and control mode of the monetary authority by using LT-TVP-VAR model. The conclusion is that the dependency relation of China's monetary policy and inflation gap and output has a threshold effect, the central bank has asymmetric preference, “price” monetary policy to avoid the output contraction preference, “quantity” monetary policy has weak preference to avoid deflation. As far as the effect is concerned, the “price” policy is better than the deflation effect, and the “quantity type” policy is better to control inflation, stimulate output growth and restrain economy overheating. Finally the paper puts forward three policy suggestions in the period of “new normal”.
|
|
Received: 20 March 2016
Published: 11 April 2018
|
|
|
|
|
| [1] |
卞志村,2007,《通货膨胀目标制:理论、实践及在中国的检验》,《金融研究》第9期,第42~54页。
|
| [2] |
刘达禹,2016,《规则型货币政策与经济周期关联机制的理论模拟与计量检验》,《吉林大学》。
|
| [3] |
刘金全和解瑶姝,2015,《中国新一轮“低通货膨胀”下的货币政策选择》,《经济问题探索》第8期,第118~126页。
|
| [4] |
刘金全和张小宇,2012,《时变参数“泰勒规则”在我国货币政策操作中的实证研究》,《管理世界》第7期,第20~28页。
|
| [5] |
伍戈,2011,《对中国通货膨胀的实证研究——从一般到特殊的建模方法》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第6期,第52~63页。
|
| [6] |
张小宇和刘金全,2010,《“泰勒规则”在中国经济运行中的经验证据》,《财经研究》第11期,第127~134页。
|
| [7] |
张雪兰和徐水安,2008,《通货膨胀目标制是现阶段我国的最优货币政策选择吗?——基于损失函数及先决条件的分析》,《财贸经济》第8期,第44~49页。
|
| [8] |
郑挺国和刘金全,2010,《区制转移形式的“泰勒规则”及其在中国货币政策中的应用》,《经济研究》第3期,第40~52页。
|
| [9] |
Benjamin M.,Friedman,Kenneth N.,and Kuttner. 1992. “Money,Income,Prices and Interest Rates”,American Economic Review,82(3):472~492.
|
| [10] |
Cukierman A. and Gerlach S. 2003. “The Inflation Bias Revisited: Theory and Some International Evidence”,Manchester School,71(5):541~565.
|
| [11] |
Ikeda D. 2013. “Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in Asset Price Bubbles”,Bank of Japan Working Paper.
|
| [12] |
Jonas J. and Mishkin F.S. 2004. “Inflation Targeting in Transition Economies Experience and Prospects”,Nber Chapters.
|
| [13] |
McCallum B.T. 1988. “Robustness Properties of a Rule for Monetary Policy”,Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Polic,29(1):173~203.
|
| [14] |
Nakajima J.,Kasuya M.,and Watanabe T. 2011. “Bayesian Analysis of Time-varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model for the Japanese Economy and Monetary Policy”,Journal of the Japanese & International Economies,25(3):225~245.
|
| [15] |
Nakajima J. and M. West. 2013. “Bayesian Analysis of Latentthreshold Dynamic Models”,Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,31(2):151~164.
|
| [16] |
Orphanides A. 2003. “Monetary Policy Evaluation with Noisy Information”, Journal of Monetary economics,50(3):605~631.
|
| [17] |
Primiceri and Giorgio E. 2005.“Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy”,The Review of EconomicStudies,72(3):821~852.
|
| [18] |
Roman H. 2008. “The Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time: A Predictor for Future Inflation?”,Economic Modelling,26(1):71~81.
|
| [19] |
Taylor J.B. 1993. “Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice”,Carnegie-rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,195~214.
|
|
|
|
