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| De-greening of Credit Allocation and Credit Risk under Systemic Financial Stress |
| LIN Shihan, YANG Zihui, DAI Zhiying, WEN Xuelian
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| School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics; Shanghai Institute of International Finance and Economics; Advanced Institute of Finance, Sun Yat-sen University; School of Economics and Management, South China Normal University |
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Abstract The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the imperative to “accelerate the green transition in all areas of economic and social development in an effort to build a beautiful China”. This transition, however, typically entails substantial, long-term financial commitments. In the face of heightened global financial pressures and the declining profitability of banks, credit resources are currently shifting from green to non-green sectors, increasing the pressure of “de-greening”. Against this backdrop, optimizing credit allocation and guiding financial resources to support the green economy have become critical challenges for China’s economic and financial strategy. To address this, this paper is the first to propose a novel index of “De-greening of Credit Allocation (DGCA)”, which provides a quantitative measure of the extent to which credit resources shift from green to brown firms within Chinese provinces, and further investigates the relationship among systemic financial stress, credit de-greening, and credit risk.
In China’s bank-dominated financial system,credit allocation plays a pivotal role in facilitating the transition toward a green economy. However, as global systemic financial pressures intensify, empirical research fails to provide clear and systematic conclusions regarding whether credit resources shift away from green sectors and whether such shifts generate latent financial risks. Although a growing number of studies have examined resource reallocation under financial stress scenarios, most of them focus on capital markets such as equities and bonds, while paying limited attention to credit allocation. Moreover, prior research lacks both a clear consensus on the direction of financial resource reallocation and a systematic evaluation of the risks it entails. To this end, this paper establishes an analytical framework of “systemic financial stress - credit de-greening - credit risk,” which sheds light on the internal logic of credit reallocation in periods of financial stress and further explores the financial vulnerabilities arising from credit de-greening. These findings offer important implications for enhancing credit support for the green transition and safeguarding financial stability during the transition process.
Specifically, this paper constructs a provincial-level DGCA index based on a sample consisting of 4,652 Chinese listed firms from 2010Q1 to 2023Q1. The value of the DGCA index appears to be higher in several western provinces, implying tighter credit de-greening constraints on the local firms that may hinder the low-carbon transition. Empirical analysis reveals that systemic financial stress has a significantly positive effect on the DGCA index. Banks’ “short-termism” serves as the primary channel: as financial pressure intensifies, banks shift their focus from long-term sustainability to short-term economic returns, discount the long-run benefits of green firms, and interpret the declines in green firms’ stock returns as signals of short-term deterioration, thereby tightening green credit and inducing credit de-greening. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect of financial stress on credit de-greening is more pronounced during economic downturns and periods of high policy uncertainty. We also decompose financial stress series into positive and negative variations and find that credit de-greening significantly worsens as financial pressure rises but is difficult to reverse when financial pressure decreases.
Further analysis reveals that an increase in the credit de-greening index significantly amplifies credit risk. In particular, the DGCA index exerts a significantly positive effect on the credit risk of green firms, while this effect is negative but statistically insignificant for brown firms. These results indicate that credit de-greening primarily drives overall credit risk by increasing the default likelihood of green firms. Spatial Durbin model estimates reveal significant direct, indirect, and total effects of the DGCA index on most credit risk indicators, suggesting that credit de-greening in a given province not only significantly increases local default probabilities, but also generates positive spatial spillovers to neighboring provinces, thereby exacerbating regional credit risk.
Based on these findings, the paper offers three key policy recommendations. First, greater attention should be paid to the issue of credit de-greening in western regions, with enhanced targeted credit support for green industries in key areas. Second, counter-cyclical policy efforts should be strengthened to mitigate the driving effect of systemic financial stress on credit de-greening. Third, inter-provincial coordination in financial regulation should be enhanced to prevent the cross-regional transmission of risks arising from localized credit de-greening.
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Received: 17 January 2025
Published: 01 April 2026
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