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| Impact of Credit Supply Cycle on Investment Efficiency and Heterogeneous Effect from Macroeconomic Uncertainty |
| LIU Haiming, CAO Tingqiu
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School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics;
School of Economics, Shandong University |
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Abstract This paper investigates the effect of credit supply cycle on investment efficiency, how this effect differs in periods of different macroeconomic uncertainty and its mechanism. Results show that increasing credit supply will decrease the sensitivity of investment to investment opportunity, thus decreasing the investment efficiency. From perspective of reasons, credit expansion decreases credit resources allocation efficiency and enhances bigger firms and state-owned firms' investment to a larger extent. Furthermore, during the period of higher macroeconomic uncertainty, the negative effect of credit expansion on investment efficiency will be smaller. From the perspective of mechanism, during the period of higher macroeconomic uncertainty, credit supply expansion will make firms with more growth opportunities obtain more loans and increase firms' propensity for investment. This paper uncovers the impact of China's credit supply policy on firm investment efficiency and its mechanism, and has some implications for managing aggregate demand during new normal period.
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Received: 12 December 2016
Published: 02 April 2018
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