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| Information Disclosure and Inflation Expectation Management in the Central Bank: The Construction of An Information Disclosure Index and Empirical |
| YAN Xiandong , GAO Wenbo
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The People’s Bank of China;
Fuzhou Central Sub-branch,the People’s Bank of China |
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Abstract This essay constructs an information disclosure index using analysis on the price trend in past issues of Report on Monetary Policy Implementation by the People’s Bank of China. Methods such as variance measurement are applied in constructing the index. Then we use a SVAR model to quantify the impacts on public inflation expectations of certain variables, respectively. These variables include price changes, the output gap, traditional monetary policy instruments and information disclosure of the central bank. The empirical results show that information disclosure of the central bank, as well as other variables, all have significant impacts on inflation expectation. The model also indicates that information disclosure of the central bank works superior to traditional monetary policy instruments, be it quantitative ones or price-based ones. It is feasible, therefore, for the central bank to improve inflation expectation management by improved communication with market participants.
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Received: 16 May 2016
Published: 18 January 2018
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